Dare to Win: Top 3 Overvalued Players Based on Current ADPJune 7, 2018 | insideinjuries | No Comments
*A special from Dare Maybury at Creative Sports
There is a big difference between an overvalued player and a bust. Overvalued simply means that based on where that player is going in the draft. This could range from a variety of factors. The potential risk associated with drafting that player may be too high, they may lack the upside needed to exceed that draft position or there may simply be better targets in that ADP range. This is a list of the top three overvalued players of the 2018 offseason.
Jared Goff – Ninth Round – QB10
Who on earth is drafting Jared Goff at QB10? There is a clear difference between ADP and Rankings. Rankings are where a player is projected to finish. ADP is where these players are ACTUALLY being drafted. Pro Football Focus rated Goff as the 16th best passer in 2017 and that was on a great year for this offense as a whole. It’s almost inevitable to have some regression. Last season The California Kid finished as QB12 and that was with both Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck on I.R.. Oh and did I mention this hot new quarterback named Deshaun Watson will make his triumphant return? In order to exceed his draft value he will need to take a massive step forward and we just do not see that happening in 2018. They added Brandin Cooks but NFL teams have an entire year of tape on this new Sean McVay Offense. Things could get bumpy for The Rams in 2018 and considering that you could get players like Jameis Winston in the 13th round there is absolutely no reason to take Jared Goff in the ninth round.
Evan Engram – 6th round – TE6
Everything that could have possibly went right for Engram went right for him last season. At least from an opportunity stand point. Odell Beckham and Brandon Marshall were injured in the beginning of the season leaving the depth chart for The New York Giants absolutely decimated. Sterling Shepard even missed 5 games which caused Engram to lead this team in targets. Even with all of those factors going in Engrams favor he still was only able to produce as the TE5. The odds of New York suffering that many Injuries this season is astronomical. He also wasn’t even efficient on his targets leading all tight ends in drops and having the second most drops in the entire league behind only Dez Bryant (who still doesn’t have a team). Engram also ranked 11th in yards per route run despite being one of the only targets on that team. Realistically he has no chance to be a top 3 player at his position and his stats will likely be closer to the tight ends drafted in rounds 8-12 than the tight ends being taken in the beginning of the draft. Why waste high draft capital on a player severely lacking upside. Do yourself a favor and draft Kyle Rudolph a round later. Kirk Cousins has averaged 137 targets and 99 receptions for 1100 and 8TDs per season to the tight end position throughout his career in Washington and Kyle Rudolph is the only TE in town.
Davante Adams – Second Round – WR7
This may be the most controversial overvalued candidate on this list. Everyone is enamored with the touchdown upside of Adams yet he has not ever had a season over 1000 yards or 75 receptions. As we know touchdowns are not easily predictive year over year. What is predictive is volume. Scott Barrett at Pro Football Focus wrote a great article regarding touchdown regression. One thing he found was that over the past 10 years there have been 129 instances of a Flex eligible player recording over 10 touchdowns in a single season. Out of all of those players that played in at least 1 game the following season only 8.5% of those players saw an increase in touchdowns the next year. On average they saw a reduction in total touchdowns of -5.5. The article is a must read for those of you stat junkies out there. History is against Davante Adams and they also brought in Jimmy Graham to be a red zone weapon for this team. Randall Cobb is projected to get most of his work within the 20’s so why is it that Davante Adams is considered one of the safer picks in this range? A full season of Aaron Rodgers will definitely improve his odds of having a successful season but in 2015 Jordy was out the entire season with a torn ACL leaving mainly Randall Cobb and Davante Adams as the two main receivers. Adams was only able to compile 483 receiving yards and 1 touchdown through 13 games. Everyone has the blinders on when it comes to the risks that come with drafting Davante Adams. He still is a good early wide receiver pick but to draft him ahead of players like A.J. Green and Mike Evans is a mistake.
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